In this supposedly quiet off-year election, three contests taking place Tuesday are filling the void. Voters in New Jersey and Virginia will elect governors, while voters in upstate New York are filling a vacant House seat in a race with national implications.

Here are some things to look for as the results come in.

¶The nail-biter: There will probably be only one suspenseful race, the contest between Gov. Jon S. Corzine of New Jersey and his Republican challenger, Christopher J. Christie. Last-minute polls suggests the race is too close to call, even after President Obama traveled to New Jersey on Sunday to campaign for Mr. Corzine.

Some Democrats said they were concerned that an early surge of support for a third-party candidate, Christopher J. Daggett, which appeared to come at the expense of Mr. Christie, is now fading as anti-Corzine voters settle on Mr. Christie. Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time, and if the race turns out to be as close as expected, this could be yet another American election with no conclusion by the time everyone goes to sleep. (Polls close at 7 p.m. in Virginia and at 9 p.m. in New York, and those races could be decided relatively early.)

¶Worst outcome for Democrats: A Republican victory in New Jersey. Most polls suggest that Democrats will lose the upstate New York House race and the Virginia governor’s seat, so this is the race that could decide whether Republicans get a sweep. New Jersey is a predominantly Democratic state, and one where Mr. Obama invested his own political capital on behalf of Mr. Corzine.

A loss there, particularly if it is part of a sweep, is going to produce a wave of “Obama is in trouble” commentary that, justified or not, will hinder the president at the very moment he needs all the clout he can muster to get bills on health care and global warming through Congress.

¶Best outcome for Democrats: Win in both New Jersey and in the 23rd Congressional district in New York; it would be reason for celebration in the White House. That said, even winning just New Jersey might be considered a victory of sorts for the Democrats, considering that most of the party now considers the Virginia race a lost cause.

¶Worst outcome for Republicans: Losing the New York congressional race, which has showcased deep divisions between moderates and conservatives over how the party should rebuild to return to power.

There’s a reason the White House made such an effort to get the Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, who dropped out on Saturday, to endorse Bill Owens, the Democrat. Ms. Scozzafava ended her campaign in the face of a withering attack from conservatives who were upset that she supported gay rights and abortion rights, and who rallied around a conservative candidate, Douglas L. Hoffman. Conservative leaders like Sarah Palin, one of many who endorsed Mr. Hoffman, argued that the way back to power in America is to embrace the Republican Party’s conservative roots; a loss by Mr. Hoffman in a historically Republican district would cast doubt on that assertion and potentially prolong a divisive debate within the party over moving to the middle versus moving to the right.

¶Biggest potential surprise of the night: In theory, at least, it would be to see R. Creigh Deeds, the Democrat, defeat Robert F. McDonnell, the Republican, in Virginia. The state currently has a Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, who could not seek re-election because of term limits.

A little more feasible in the long-shot department would be a victory by Mr. Owens over Mr. Hoffman. Still, that seems unlikely since this district has voted Republican for more than a 100 years and Mr. Owens is no longer benefiting from his opponents’ splitting the Republican vote. For all that, the White House political director, Patrick Gaspard, has told associates he thinks Democrats can win in a district that tends to elect moderates, and he has put a lot of effort into trying to score a victory. So it is worth keeping an eye on results there.

¶Questionable spin watch: If Mr. Hoffman wins in New York, look for conservatives to argue that that the vote is a vindication of the appeal of the populist brand of conservatism pressed by leaders like Ms. Palin. But the way the race has played out in Virginia suggests otherwise. If Mr. McDonnell wins, it will be after having run a race in which he aggressively distanced himself from his history of advocating socially conservative positions. That could suggest Republicans seeking to get back in power in swing states should strike a moderate tone.

In the final hours of the campaign, Mr. McDonnell told ABC News he was unaware of automated telephone calls that were being made to Virginia households on his behalf by Ms. Palin. In October, he made a point of saying that he did not expect Ms. Palin to campaign for him, even though he said he had thought earlier that she might. “She seems to be too busy with books and other things like that,” he said. “We have 20 events scheduled down the line, and she’s not one of them.”

¶Lessons for 2010? It is probably not wise to draw broad lessons from Tuesday’s results about what might happen in next year’s midterm Congressional elections and high-profile governor’s races. That said, it is worth watching whether Mr. Obama succeeds in turning out his supporters — especially people who voted for the first time last year — in New Jersey and to a lesser extent in Virginia.

That will be an early sign of his ability to transfer his own appeal to other candidates and of whether he has succeeded in building a sustainable new coalition of Democratic voters. That is something that will not be lost on Democratic members of Congress, especially those in moderate and Republican-leaning districts whom he will be pressing to cast tough votes on issues like health care and climate change.

Similarly, in Virginia, keep an eye on whether independent voters who supported Mr. Obama so strongly in 2008 turn out for Mr. Deeds, vote for Mr. McDonnell or just stay home.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/04/us/politics/04nagourney.html?_r=1&hp=&...

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